Buying before selling seemed a bit risky to Daniels, especially in January. But as it turned out, getting his house out there early paid off. It took only one day to get the right offer. And thanks to some updates he had put in himself, he received 42% more than he paid for it six years ago. "The buyers walked in and said, 'This looks like a good value.' It wasn't underpriced, but priced to reflect the market," says RE/MAX agent Jack Gustafson, who listed the Daniels house.
A sound financial move
Often, analysts say, people get so fixated on getting the lowest possible price that they forget just how little difference an extra $10,000 in the home price can mean to their monthly mortgage payment.
Assuming a buyer pays $300,000 rather than $310,000 on a 5.7%, 30-year loan with $30,000 down, he’d be paying $1,575 a month rather than $1,634.
Of course, the costs of the initial $10,000 add up the longer you own the home without paying off the mortgage. But, that additional $10,000 in value might be just the psychological boost some sellers need to part with their homes.
And for first-time home buyers in markets such as Los Angeles, there's extra incentive in the form of rapidly rising rents. Los Angeles rents have climbed 25% since 2003, to an average $1,617, according to data firm RealFacts.
In areas such as Los Angeles and Philadelphia, rents are getting close to or surpassing a mortgage payment. And the mortgage-interest deduction on your taxes is a huge help for those who need a write-off, Conway says.
Moreover, if you've lived in your house for many years and built up some equity, you can weather selling in this kind of market and finding another home. That's especially true if you are moving from a boom market, such as Los Angeles, that is only now beginning to bust, to another area where prices are lower.
You have to know when to hold 'em
Of course, there are some people who are better off waiting in this market: people who bought their current home in the past couple of years. In this short period of time, the value of the home hasn't gone up enough to compensate for the agent's commission and other selling costs.
These days, Gaines thinks that five is the magic number when it comes to buying and selling: If you've been in your house five years and plan to move to a place where you will stay at least another five, you're probably OK.
However, there are a few notable exceptions. There are some markets around the country where prices are still sliding, jobs are being lost and foreclosures are making it hard for people to sell their homes, such as economically depressed Detroit.
Gaines and Conway say there is still too much uncertainty in boom-and-bust markets such as Phoenix; Las Vegas; San Diego; and Miami and Tampa, Fla. In San Diego, for instance, prices fell 2.6% in October alone, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Schiller Home Price Index. And agents there are saying those price drops have continued to snowball since that survey was done.
In Phoenix, there is a 10-month supply of houses on the market, making it harder for people to sell their homes without taking a price cut. "The people buying right now are really the people who have an urgent need to move," says Mike Mendoza of Keller Williams Realty in Phoenix.
And it probably goes without saying that you shouldn't buy if your job security looks a little uncertain in the near future.
How to get the best deal
If you're ready to buy, try to make the best deal you can in a neighborhood that is holding its own, analysts say. Check real-estate Web sites such as Realtor.com, Trulia.com and Zillow.com, or go through the real-estate sales data published in your local newspaper to see what houses are going for in your area. When you have zeroed in on a neighborhood, work with an experienced real-estate agent to go over the fundamentals: How much inventory is out there? How many of the listings are foreclosures? How have prices in that neighborhood fared historically and over the past year or two? This will give you a feel for the overall direction of the neighborhood.
If there are a lot of foreclosures continuing to pop up, prices might fall further than you'd like in the short term. That may not be an issue if you plan to stay put for a while, but it could limit your options if you need to sell or refinance your mortgage.
Once you've bought, don't get discouraged if prices don't begin to jump back up immediately. Many, including Gaines and Conway, are predicting this down market to remain in a trough for a while, rather than bouncing back up.
"I think it will go down, hit bottom and slink along the bottom before it comes back up," Gaines says.
But ultimately, the market will come back up, he notes, even those markets in California that are taking a beating. "Does anybody really believe that California won't come back again, and with a vengeance?" he says with a chuckle.
5 REASONS TO BUY
1. Prices in the neighborhood you are interested in are relatively stable. Either they are holding their own or increasing, or the pace of decline is slowing significantly. If you have to move and don't like apartments, the small penalty you pay for missing the bottom may not mean much.
2. You plan to stay in the home for more than five years. If you can stick it out that long before selling, economists say you’ll probably ride out any downturn and come out ahead on price.
3. Your rent rivals a mortgage payment. If you can afford to buy, it can give you one bonus that renting can't: the mortgage-interest deduction on your taxes.
4. You've found the right house in the right area for you. The schools are great. You love the area and know it would be hard to find another house like the one you have your eye on. In a better market, you would most likely have much more competition for that home.
5. You've built equity in your house and are moving to a place where homes are cheaper. In your new market, your money will go a lot further.
5 REASONS TO HOLD OFF
1. You've lived in your house less than two years. Chances are you haven't had enough time to accumulate equity in your home. Indeed, you may have negative equity, if you live in many areas such as California, Florida, Arizona or Nevada.
2. Your job security is uncertain. If your company or business is in distress, it's probably better to stay put until the smoke clears.
3. You don't plan to stay in your next house at least five years. While it's not important to buy at the exact bottom of the market, it is important to stay long enough to ride it out completely.
4. You don't have good credit or a decent down payment. Do you have a job and income you can document? As a result of the subprime lending crisis, lenders are much more careful about whom they're giving their money to.
5. You have an existing home to sell in a neighborhood where prices are dropping precipitously or where the number of foreclosures is spiking. In this climate, you're probably better off waiting out the storm.